Paul Nolan, Ph.D.
Paul has worked as a climate scientist at the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) since 2013. Paul has a PhD in Meteorology (UCD), a M.Sc. in Mathematics (NUIM), a M.Sc. in High Performance Computing (TCD) and a B.Sc., in Mathematics (NUIG). He has lectured on Climate Dynamics and Mathematics at UCD and TCD for over 13 years.
Paul’s main area of research (currently funded by EPA, Met Éireann, Marine Institute and SFI) involves modelling climate change on both a global and regional scale.
Paul worked with the EC-Earth Earth System Model (ESM) European consortium for a decade on developing the ESM in preparation for CMIP6. Paul managed the running, data hosting and analysis of a large ensemble of global simulations on the ICHEC and ECMWF supercomputing systems. These simulations comprise Ireland’s contribution to CMIP6, and their results informed the IPCC AR6 WG1 & WG2 reports published in 2021 & 2022. The results will continue to inform upcoming IPCC AR6 Volumes as well as both international and national research for the next decade. The large datasets (1.5PB) are hosted on the ICHEC ESGF data servers and freely shared with the international research community. Model-level data were archived allowing for international (e.g., CORDEX) and national regional downscaling using regional climate models.
A second main component of Paul’s climate modelling research involves simulating the future climate of Ireland on a national (& European via EURO-CORDEX) scale at high spatial resolution. This work involves downscaling CMIP5&6 data to provide high resolution (~3.8km) regional climate projections for Ireland using regional climate models. Current work focuses on decreasing the uncertainty of climate projections by utilising the most up-to-date regional climate models to downscale CMIP6 global data, greenhouse gas scenarios (SSPs) and running the models with finer detail. The downscaled climate datasets, produced by Paul, have informed numerous governmental climate change policy reports. The climate datasets are regularly shared with national research groups working on various climate impact studies.
The data produced by Paul form the basis of the Met Éireann TRANSLATE project and some of the national climate projections of the EPA 5YAR climate change assessment report. TRANSLATE is a collaboration between ICHEC and UCC and is led by Paul. The objectives of TRANSLATE are to develop standardised future climate projections for Ireland, and hence to develop a range of sector-specific climate services. The “standard” dataset will encourage national researchers and policy makers to move towards analyses of a more standardised/common national climate dataset, and prevent use of outdated models (e.g., CMIP3) and scenarios (e.g., SRES), and encourage inter-sector collaborations.
Paul’s climate modelling work also involves improving the ‘observational’ climate data record of Ireland by simulating the historical climate at very high detail. The ECMWF ERA-Interim and ERA5 global reanalysis data were downscaled for the period 1980-Present using COSMO-CLM and WRF-3DVar at a spatial resolution of 2km. The resulting datasets have the potential to be utilised in a wide range of applications, including agricultural, public health, energy (wind, wave and solar), insurance, socio-economic planning, and fundamental studies in observed climate change trends and variability. It is proposed for the data to utilised in the TRANSLATE-2 project to “bias-correct” the regional projections.
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Peer Reviewed Publications: |
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Reyne, M.I., Dicks, K., Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., Twining, J.P., Aubry, A., Emmerson, M., Marnell, F., Helyar, S. and Reid, N., 2023. Landscape genetics identifies barriers to Natterjack toad metapopulation dispersal. Conservation Genetics, 24(3), pp.375-390. |
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O'Brien, E. and Nolan, P., 2023. TRANSLATE: standardized climate projections for Ireland. Frontiers in Climate, 5, p.1166828. |
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Doddy Clarke, E., Sweeney, C., McDermott, F., Griffin, S., Correia, J.M., Nolan, P. and Cooke, L., 2022. Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland. Wind Energy, 25(2), pp.300-312. |
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McGowan, N.E., Roche, N., Aughney, T., Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., Marnell, F. and Reid, N., 2021. Testing consistency of modelled predictions of the impact of climate change on bats. Climate Change Ecology, 2, p.100011. |
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Jones, C.D., J.E. Hickman, S.T. Rumbold, J. Walton, R.D. Lamboll, R.B. Skeie, S. Fiedler, P. Forster, J. Rogelj, M. Abe, M. Botzet, K. Calvin, C. Cassou, J.N.S. Cole, P. Davini, M. Deushi, M. Dix, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, T. Ilyina, M. Kawamiya, M. Kelley, S. Kharin, T. Koshiro, H. Li, C. Mackallah, W.A. Müller, P. Nabat, T. van Noije, P. Nolan, R. Ohgaito, D. Olivié, N. Oshima, J. Parodi, T.J. Reerink, L. Ren, A. Romanou, R. Séférian, Y. Tang, C. Timmreck, J. Tjiputra, E. Tourigny, K. Tsigaridis, H. Wang, M. Wu, K. Wyser, S. Yang, Y. Yang, and T. Ziehn, 2021: The climate response to emissions reductions due to COVID19: Initial results from CovidMIP. Geophys. Res Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091883 |
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Reyne, M., McGowan, N.E., Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., Aubry, A., Emmerson, M., Marnell, F. and Reid, N., 2021. Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?. Ecology and Evolution. [Read] |
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Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Arsouze, T., Bergmann, T., Bernadello, R., Bousetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O’Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-446, in review, 2021. |
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Morrissey, P., Nolan, P., McCormack, T., Johnston, P., Naughton, O. and Gill, L., 2021. Impacts of climate change on groundwater flooding and ecohydrology in lowland karst. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 25, 1923–1941, 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1923-2021. [Read] |
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Hawchar, L., Naughton, O., Nolan, P., Stewart, M.G. and Ryan, P.C., 2020. A GIS-based framework for high-level climate change risk assessment of critical infrastructure. Climate Risk Management, 29, p.100235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100235 |
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Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., McGrath, R. and Werner, C., 2019. Towards a definitive historical high-resolution climate dataset for Ireland–promoting climate research in Ireland. Advances in Science and Research, 15, pp.263-276. |
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O. Naughton, A. Donnelly, P. Nolan, F. Pilla, B.D. Misstear, B. Broderick, A land use regression model for explaining spatial variation in air pollution levels using a wind sector based approach, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 630, 15 July 2018, Pages 1324-1334, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.317 |
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Connie O'Driscoll, José L.J. Ledesma, John Coll, John G. Murnane, Paul Nolan, Eva M. Mockler, Martyn N. Futter, Liwen W. Xiao, Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 630, 15 July 2018, Pages 869-877, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.248. |
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Nolan, P., O'Sullivan, J., & McGrath, R. (2017). Impacts of climate change on mid‐twenty‐first‐century rainfall in Ireland: a high‐resolution regional climate model ensemble approach. International Journal of Climatology. |
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John O’Sullivan, Conor Sweeney, Paul Nolan, Emily Gleeson (2015) A high-resolution, multi-model analysis of Irish temperatures for the mid 21st-century. International Journal of Climatology. |
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Abdalla, M., Hastings, A., Helmy, M., Prescher, A., Osborne, B., Lanigan, G., Forristal, D., Killi, D., Maratha, P., Williams, M., Rueangritsarakul, K., Smith, P., Nolan, P. and Jones, M. B. (2014). Assessing the combined use of reduced tillage and cover crops for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from arable ecosystem. Geoderma, Elsevier. |
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M. Abdalla, K. Rueangritsarakul, M. Jones, B. Osborne, M. Helmy, B. Roth, J. Burke, P. Nolan, P. Smith, M. Williams. How Effective is Reduced Tillage–Cover Crop Management in Reducing N2O Fluxes from Arable Crop Soils? Water, Air, & Soil Pollution. |
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Nolan, P., Lynch, P. and Sweeney, C. (2012) Simulating the future wind energy resource of Ireland using the COSMO-CLM model. Wind Energy. |
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Nolan, P., P. Lynch and C. Sweeney; (2011) Simulating Climate Change and its Effects on the Wind Energy Resource of Ireland. Wind Energy. |
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Hanafin, J, McGrath, R, Semmler, T, Wang, S, Lynch, P, Steele-Dunne, S, Nolan, P; (2011) Air flow and stability indices in GCM future and control runs. International Journal of Climatology, 31:1240-1247. |
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Sweeney, Conor, Peter Lynch and Paul Nolan (2011) Reducing errors of wind speed forecasts by an optimal combination of post-processing methods. Meteorological Applications. |
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Semmler, T, McGrath, R, Steele-Dunne, S, Hanafin, J, Nolan, P, Wang, S; (2010) Influence of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in Ireland. International Journal of Climatology, 30:1502-1511. |
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Steele-Dunne, S., Lynch, P., McGrath, R., Semmler, T., Wang, S. Y., Hanafin, J., Nolan, P., (2008) The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of Hydrology, 356 (1-2):28-45. |
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Wang, S, McGrath, R, Hanafin, J, Lynch, P, Semmler, T, Nolan, P; (2008) The impact of climate change on storm surges over Irish waters. Ocean Modelling, 25:83-94./td> |
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Semmler, T, Varghese, S, McGrath, R, Nolan, P, Wang, S, Lynch, P, O’Dowd, C; (2008) Regional climate model simulations of North Atlantic cyclones: frequency and intensity changes. Climate Research, 36:1-16. |
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Semmler, T, Varghese, S, McGrath, R, Nolan, P, Wang, S, Lynch, P, O’Dowd, C; (2008) Regional model simulation of North Atlantic cyclones: Present climate and idealized response to increased sea surface temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 113. |
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S. Wang, R. McGrath, T. Semmler, C. Sweeney, and P. Nolan (2006) The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. |
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Research Reports (2005-2020):
Flanagan, J., Nolan, P., (2020). Towards a definitive historical high-resolution climate dataset for Ireland – promoting climate research in Ireland. EPA Research Report 350. [Read]
Nolan, P., Flanagan, J. (2020). High-Resolution Climate Projections for Ireland – A Multi-model Ensemble Approach. EPA Research Report, 339. http://epa.ie/pubs/reports/research/climate/researchreport339/
Paul Nolan, Alastair McKinstry (2020); EC-Earth Global Climate Simulations: Ireland’s Contributions to CMIP6. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Report 310. [Read]. A better quality version with increased quality of images, can be found here.
Christopher Werner, Paul Nolan and Owen Naughton (2019). High-resolution Gridded Datasets of Hydro-climate Indices for Ireland; Environmental Protection Agency Research Report 267. [Read]
McGrath, R., Nolan, P (May 2017). Irish Storminess: What Does the Future Hold? Expert Statement: Royal Irish Academy Climate Change and Environmental Sciences Committee, May 2017. [Read]
Nolan P. (2015) Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland, 2015. Environmental Protection Agency, Report 159. [Read]
Gleeson, E., McGrath R., Treanor M., Nolan, P. et al. (2013). Ireland’s climate: the road ahead. Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland. [Read]
Susan Dunne, Jenny Hanafin, Peter Lynch, Ray McGrath, Elisa Nishimura, Paul Nolan, Tido Semmler, Conor Sweeney and Shiyu Wang (2008) Ireland in a Warmer World: Scientific Predictions of the Irish Climate in the Twenty-First Century. Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) final report, Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland.
McGrath R., E. Nishimura, P. Nolan, J.V. Ratnam, T. Semmler, C. Sweeney, S.Wang, (2005) Climate Change: Regional Climate Model Predictions for Ireland. Environmental Protection Agency, Dublin, Ireland.
