Climate Change And The Future Of Irish Storms

As the clean-up after Storm Ophelia continues, a hot topic of conversation is whether climate change will have an impact on the frequency and intensity of Irish storms in the future.

Researchers at ICHEC and UCD have examined this questions and results were presented in an expert statement published by the Royal Irish Academy Climate Change and Environmental Sciences Committee:

The statement looks at storm tracks, changes in storm tracks in the past and current climate and future projections of storm tracks.

In summary, much uncertainty still remains regarding future changes in the frequency and wind severity of storms affecting Ireland.

Model improvements, particularly in the representation of processes in the ocean and stratosphere and an improved resolution of spatial detail, are expected to reduce the uncertainty of the climate projections. The Irish Centre for High-End Computing and Met Éireann, supported by funding from the EPA, are currently involved in the development of a next-generation Earth system model in the EC-Earth consortium. Simulations with this and other enhanced models planned for CMIP6, the follow-up to CMIP5, will shed further light on the impact of climate change on storms in Ireland.