Updated High-Resolution Climate Projections for Ireland: Key Findings and Implications

A new report on high-resolution climate projections for Ireland has been released, the report offers crucial insights into the country’s future climate. Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), co-funded by Met Éireann and the Marine Institute, and led by Dr. Paul Nolan, Climate Science Programme Manager at ICHEC, the projections use advanced regional climate models run on large supercomputers. These models provide more precise data to inform national policy and guide local and regional climate adaptation efforts.

Key Findings: What the Future Holds for Ireland's Climate 

The updated projections offer a clearer picture of the climate changes Ireland can expect. Below are some of the key findings that are of particular interest:  

• Temperature: Near-surface temperatures are projected to rise by 0.5–0.7°C (2021–2050) under a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and by 2.4–3.0°C (2071–2100) under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), with the largest increases observed in eastern Ireland. 
• Extreme Weather: Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent, while frost and ice days will decrease. Both dry spells and extreme rainfall events will intensify. 
• Precipitation: Winter and autumn months are projected to become wetter, while summer rainfall is expected to decrease by up to 8% by the end of the century. 
• Snowfall: Snowfall is expected to decline sharply, with reductions of up to 84% by 2100 under the highest emissions scenario. 
• Growing Seasons: The length of the growing season is projected to increase, benefiting agriculture with warmer soil temperatures and improved conditions for crop production. 
• Energy: Wind energy potential is projected to decrease, particularly in summer, while photovoltaic power is expected to decline across all seasons. 
• Heating Demand: With warmer winters, heating demand in Ireland is expected to decrease over the coming decades. 

Figure 1. RCM-CMIP6 ensemble projections of mean annual 2-m temperature. All RCM ensemble members were run with 4-km grid spacing. In each case, the future 30-year period is compared with the past period, 1981–2010. The results were obtained from analysing 10 SSP126, 10 SSP245,10 SSP370 and 10 SSP585 RCM simulations. The numbers included on each plot are the minimum and maximum projected changes, displayed at their locations. 

Figure 2. Annual RCM-CMIP6 ensemble mean projections of snowfall (%). In each case, the future 30-year period is compared with the past period, 1981–2010. The numbers included on each plot are the minimum and maximum projected changes, displayed at their locations. 

Supporting Climate Action and Policy 

Led by Dr. Paul Nolan, these high-resolution projections provide a crucial resource for assessing climate risks and supporting effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.  

Commenting on the report, Dr Nolan said: “The research improves on previous research by simulating the future climate at a higher spatial resolution (4 km) using the most up-to-date regional climate models to downscale an ensemble of CMIP6 global datasets under the new SSP-RCP emission scenarios. The increased ensemble size of projections allows for a more accurate quantification of climate change uncertainty. Furthermore, the current report provides projections for additional climate variables and derived metrics that are critically important to biodiversity and to key Irish sectors, including agriculture, health, energy and transport” 

This new dataset will help policymakers, planners, and stakeholders across various sectors—including agriculture, energy, and health—to make informed decisions as Ireland adapts to a changing climate. 

A second component of the project involved simulating global climate change using the EC-Earth ESM. These EC-Earth simulations formed Ireland’s contribution to CMIP6, and their results informed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Working Group 1.

For more information and to access the full report, click here. 

Watch the project highlights video here.